Two weeks ago, the markets were frozen. Recession chatter, weak labor data, and geopolitical overhangs were draining sentiment.
This week, we got a full rotation: trade relief, liquidity boost, and cross border capital flowing into U.S. assets.
1. Trump-Xi Meeting: Trade risk off At a summit in South Korea, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to reduce tensions. The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods by ~10 percentage points, and China will delay restrictions on rare earth exports.
That’s not just symbolism. It hits inputs across electronics, autos, and defense. For the first time in over a year, global trade expectations improved.
Why it matters:
Supply chain risk is repricing
U.S. agriculture and commodity exports get a boost
China sentiment is stabilizing — but still shaky
Read: Semiconductor and EV names, especially those exposed to Asia
Read: The emerging trends in infrastructure and transport (PDF)
2. Fed Rate Cut + End of QT: Liquidity returns The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% and announced it will stop its balance sheet runoff program starting December 1.
That means more liquidity. More capital in the system. More risk appetite.
Translation: QT (quantitative tightening) is done for now. The Fed sees rising risk to employment and is pre-empting slowdown.
Why it matters:
Easing financial conditions support equities, especially growth
Credit spreads narrowing
Long-duration assets (like tech) are gaining
Watch: MBS and bond market volatility, HY credit, public SaaS multiples
3. Future Investment Initiative (FII9) in Saudi Arabia: Global capital looking outward At this year’s FII conference in Riyadh, every major Wall Street and global investment firm showed up.
Themes: AI, private credit, U.S. equities, infrastructure. Not crypto. Not speculative froth. Just capital going where returns are visible.
The Saudi angle: Saudi Arabia is shifting from state-driven megaprojects to private sector-led growth. That means its sovereign wealth funds may become more active allocators in U.S. markets, AI infrastructure, and energy transition.
Why it matters:
Middle East capital could be a key buyer of U.S. assets in this next cycle
AI and clean energy still top institutional interest
FII is where the private money maps the next 5 years
Watch: AI infrastructure (NVDA, AMD, SMCI), energy services, Gulf-led U.S. acquisitions
What the Market's Saying
The S&P is up ~4.2% in the last five sessions
Bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs
VIX dropped under 14
Traders are pricing in a soft landing again. Rate cut odds are rising. And equity volumes are climbing. This isn’t a full bull breakout yet, but it’s a sentiment reversal.
What Smart Movers Should Be Thinking About
How does Fed liquidity affect your investment horizon?
Are you positioned for U.S. asset overweight in your portfolio?
Which cities and states benefit from increased infrastructure, ag, and defense spend tied to these signals?
The macro map just changed. Make sure your local bets align.
Here at SMC, we decided to put our little bit of money where our mouth is and place the smartest bets on long term appreciating assets both real and unrealized. That’s why we started Club Fund, a private, company portfolio, consisting of investments that we track using our framework, tools and own analysis. If you would like to follow what we are doing and where we are putting our money. Go here!
Make your next move count.
Stacy
Founder, CEO - Smart Movers Club
P.S. Every member’s at a different stage. Book a quick call and I’ll help you figure out which path makes the most sense for you.
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