You can feel it, right? The energy’s shifted. Two years ago, hiring was frantic — recruiters ghosted you mid-process, candidates jumped ship for 20% more, and job boards looked like slot machines. Now? It’s quieter. Not dead. Just… cooler. The question is: what does that actually mean — for founders trying to build, for investors watching margins, and for anyone wondering if their city’s still worth betting on? We pulled the last 18 months of labor market data to find out. Spoiler: the shakeout isn’t evenly distributed.
🧊 What’s happening: A slow but steady cooling
Job openings are down 10–15% from the 2024 peak. In mid-2024, there were months with 10M+ open roles. As of Q4 2025, we're now sitting just under 9 million.
Quits have dropped off. People aren’t leaving jobs like they were in 2022 or 2023 — a strong indicator of lower worker confidence.
Hiring is slower. Not negative — just slower. No mass layoffs, but also no “we’ll hire anyone with a pulse” conditions.
Layoffs are edging up but still historically low. Just enough to say the easy years are over.
This is what a cooling labor market looks like — not falling off a cliff, just gradually tightening.
🔍 What it means: More leverage for founders, more signal for investors
This environment changes the game:
For founders/operators:
It’s easier to hire. The overheated labor market of 2022–2023 is behind us. That $240K remote product manager who ghosted you? She’s answering emails again.
Retention is back. Teams are stickier. You don’t need to play defense every time LinkedIn pings.
Wage inflation is softening. New offers don’t need to clear insane comp hurdles. This improves margins — especially in services, tech, and healthcare.
For investors:
Labor-heavy sectors get breathing room. Retail, logistics, senior care, hospitality — all start to look better on a cost basis.
Founders that can hire now will scale faster. If you back teams that execute now, you’ll beat the next cohort still stuck waiting for “the market to come back.”
🌍 Where it’s happening: Geography as signal
National trends tell you what. Location tells you who.
Here’s what the geography of labor cooling looks like based on JOLTS regional breakdowns and hiring signals.
📉 Hot-to-cold shift zones:
Bay Area / SF: Hiring has cooled dramatically, especially in software, Web3, and VC-backed tech. Startups are still cautious.
New York: Wall Street is flat. Hiring slowed in PE, fintech, and media. Exceptions exist in AI infra and compliance.
Seattle: Tech jobs remain frozen. Layoffs at Amazon and Meta reverberated downstream.
🟨 Resilient and stable:
Austin, TX: Hiring cooled, but the presence of Google, Tesla (TSLA), and Oracle (ORCL) keeps job creation humming in AI/cloud/data roles.
Nashville, TN: Healthcare ops and services roles remain steady. Wage pressure is easing, but hiring is still strong.
Columbus, OH / Raleigh, NC: Quiet but solid — hiring has stayed flat, not collapsed. A good signal for ops-focused growth.
🟩 Still growing (yes, really):
Dallas–Fort Worth: Corporate relocations, finance, and AI infrastructure are still generating jobs.
Phoenix, AZ: Manufacturing, logistics, and construction tied to CHIPS Act and EV build-outs are absorbing labor.
Salt Lake City, UT: PE-backed rollups and finance ops hubs continue to hire — especially junior finance + GTM roles.
🔮 What’s likely over the next 12–18 months?
1. Margin recovery stories will outperform.
Companies that win on labor efficiency — especially in physical ops — will expand EBITDA without needing revenue to explode.
2. Hiring velocity will become a differentiator.
In 2022, everyone could hire. In 2025–2026, only the smart ones can. If you’re a founder who can recruit now (because wages are more rational), you can outscale your peers.
3. Geographic hiring resilience becomes an investment filter.
If a founder is building in a market where quits are falling but job creation is holding — that’s a strong execution signal. Think: Raleigh, DFW, Nashville.
📬 What to do with this
If you're hiring, lean in. This is the best market for talent since 2018.
If you're investing, look at labor costs and hiring velocity — not just revenue.
If you're moving, follow the job signals that still have momentum (hint: not SF).
Make your next move count.
Stacy
Founder, CEO - Smart Movers Club
We track the boring things that create wealth
P.S. Every member’s at a different stage. Book a quick call and I’ll help you figure out which path makes the most sense for you.
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