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💡 Big Moves You Need to Know
Whenever someone talks about AI, they point to chips, architectures, software. But the real danger zone lies underneath — in the wires, substations, transformers, and transmission lines. Because what good is the fastest model if you can’t power it?
That’s why I’m watching the utilities — not just as boring old names, but as the backbone infra plays hiding behind the fog. Duke Energy just raised its five-year capex plan to $83 billion, funded in part by selling non-core gas assets and unlocking equity via Brookfield. Meanwhile, PPL is pivoting aggressively — targeting $4.3B in investment in 2025 alone, linked to grid modernization and data center load.
This is where the next architecture war is being waged: not in the cloud software but in the dark corridors of power.
Oh, even though we got choice words for private equity, I watch BlackStone’s youtube like it was Sunday night football and this is what the Jon Gray, President and COO, had to say about AI and where the ideal ROI is hidden in the AI race»
Duke Energy — Going Big: $83 Billion CapEx Plan
Duke just raised its five-year capital expenditure plan to $83 billion (2025–2029), up ~13.7%. They’re planning this to meet surging demand from data centers, electrification, and the pressure on delivery infrastructure.
To fund that, Duke intends to raise about $6.5 billion in equity (approx 40% of the increase). They’re also selling off parts: e.g., they sold a 19.7% indirect stake in their Florida unit to Brookfield for $6B. The money helps pay down debt and fuel their growth plans.
Duke also plans to add nearly 5 gigawatts of natural gas generation across their jurisdictions through 2029.
And in Florida, they’re building more solar: between 2025 and 2027 they’ll roll out 12 new solar sites, adding ~900 MW.
They say this move is “one of the largest in the regulated industry” — a bet that regulated utility infrastructure is going to be under pressure and demand.
🧨 PPL Corporation — 40% Jump in CapEx Plan
PPL’s not sitting idle. They upped their infrastructure / grid investment plan by nearly 40%, targeting $20 billion for 2025–2028, with $4.3B in 2025 alone. They’re doing this to harden the grid (resilience, storms, outages) and to meet electrification demand.
They’re also pushing for a rate increase (distribution base rate hike) to fund these upgrades.
They plan to invest $7B between 2025 and 2028 in grid upgrades, smart grid tech, better lines, sensors, and more resilience to weather shocks.
They’ve already avoided some outages with their smart grid efforts.
The Bigger Picture — CapEx Across Utilities
U.S. investor-owned utilities are forecasted to spend about $214.7 billion in 2025 alone. S&P Global
Over 2025–2029, utility capital expenditures in the U.S. are expected to top $1.1–1.3 trillion to meet demand, upgrade aging systems, and adapt to electrification. Energy Central
The race is on: data centers, EVs, AI, electrification — they’re driving loads nobody planned for years ago, and utilities have to build fast.
We Are Tracking Electrification Because the Data Doesn’t Lie
🎯 Where You Should Be Leaning
Grid equipment plays: transformers, insulators, high-voltage lines, smart sensors.
Battery / storage / flexibility tech: helps with peak loads, balancing, and avoiding huge overbuild.
Utilities with optional upside: ones that can execute, have favorable regulation, and aren’t overleveraged.
SMID / niche plays: smaller infra tech or sensor / AI grid maintenance tools — high upside if the wave is real.
Asymmetric hedges: small bets on names that could double if demand surprises to the upside.
🔍 What You Watch Next (Signals to Track)
Utility earnings / investor updates — how they discuss capex, margins, rate recoveries.
Rate case filings in state public utility commissions.
Transmission / interconnection queue data — who’s building where.
Announcements from data centers, cloud providers — where new power demand is coming.
Commodity / copper / transformer price data — input costs will tell early.
Congestion / grid stress data — helps indicate where capacity is tight.
Equity issues, asset sales, partnerships — how utilities fund their capex.
🧠 Bottom Line
Everyone wants to talk about AI, but no one wants to talk about the lights that keep it running. That’s the market right now — obsessed with front-end glamour and blind to the plumbing underneath.
But follow the money long enough and you’ll see the same thing I do: the biggest capital plans in America aren’t in chips or crypto — they’re in concrete, copper, and substations. Duke and PPL aren’t chasing hype; they’re laying the foundation that every other “next big thing” depends on.
If you’re serious about investing, that’s where you start. Not in what’s trending — in what’s required.
Because when the hype cycles burn out — and they will — the power bills still come due. And the ones getting paid will be the companies that built the backbone everyone else forgot to notice.
We follow the money because that’s the only way to level the field. And right now, the money’s humming in transformers, not tweets.
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Are you a ditch digger? or do you build the tools ditch diggers use?
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Disclaimer: This intel is educational only. Always consult a licensed professional before major financial or development decisions.