More homes are on the market. So why aren’t prices falling?
Housing inventory is rising across the U.S., but the crash everyone keeps waiting for isn’t here—yet. That’s because the new listings are still far below pre-2020 norms, and they’re unevenly distributed.
What the data shows:
Phoenix: Inventory is up 35% YoY, but still down 22% vs. 2019 levels.
Austin: Active listings have doubled since 2022 but new permits are declining.
Tampa: Slight uptick in listings, but median price is holding near all-time highs.
Columbus: Inventory up modestly, but buyer demand remains strong.
Indianapolis: Still a seller's market—days on market are short and pricing firm.
Nationally, Zillow shows that total U.S. inventory is up ~17% YoY but remains 35% below 2019 averages. That’s the tension: more supply than 2022, but not enough to shift leverage to buyers.
Zooming out: Buyers are exhausted. Sellers are locked in by 2.75% mortgages. Builders? They're cautious.
Here's what our own permit data shows (Sep vs Aug 2025):
Austin: -8.9% MoM (1274 permits down from 1398)
Phoenix: -8.2% MoM (1432 vs 1560)
Tampa: +2.5% MoM (1012 vs 987)
Columbus: -3.0% MoM (848 vs 874)
Indianapolis: -3.4% MoM (776 vs 803)
That softening in permits signals builder hesitation—even in high-demand metros. It also caps future inventory, supporting price floors.
Institutional players are tiptoeing back in too. Blackstone, Invitation Homes, and AMH have resumed acquisitions in ZIPs across Georgia, Indiana, and the Carolinas. That puts a soft floor under pricing—especially in high-rent metros.
Regional divergence snapshot:
Austin & Phoenix: Frothy post-COVID growth led to sharp corrections. But supply hasn’t fully reset. Pricing is volatile.
Tampa: One of the only Sunbelt metros where home values have held, thanks to persistent in-migration and limited new construction.
Columbus & Indy: Quietly stable. Inventory is lean, permits are still being filed, and affordability keeps demand healthy.
What this means for you:
If you’re an investor betting on a crash, be specific. Some metros may correct 15–20%. Others will flatline or rise.
Builders looking to scale? Target metros with permit recovery and job growth.
Founders in proptech, lending, or home services: pay attention to metros with sticky inventory and resilient demand.
The Smart Move: Inventory is up. But not enough. The crash is highly local. Watch where permits and institutional buyers intersect—that’s your signal.
Want to see real-time inventory, permits, and investor activity across 300+ U.S. metros?
Make your next move count.
Stacy
Founder, CEO - Smart Movers Club
P.S. Take this 1-question survey to help us tailor content to you!
If you were forwarded this email and would like to keep getting Club Daily delivered to your inbox, please subscribe below.
Disclaimer: This publication is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not tailored to your circumstances, is not a complete statement of the matters discussed, and should not be relied upon as investment, legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, or other professional advice. Speak with your own professional advisors about how any information may apply to you.
Smart Movers Club LLC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of the information and disclaims liability for any errors or omissions.
Nothing herein is an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation of any security, financial instrument, or product. This publication does not form the basis of any contract and does not create a fiduciary, advisory, or client relationship with Smart Movers Club LLC. References to third-party content are for illustration only and are not endorsements. Smart Movers Club LLC is not responsible for the availability, accuracy, or content of third-party materials.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and may change without notice.