Date: September 5, 2025 · Edition #05
August Roundup
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Quick Take
I often feel the need to stop and assess after seeing just how much PE and Corp money controls the nation. We are working on an article right now that connect the dots from pre-2008 market and housing crash until now, and just how much wall street has traversed and entered the mom and pop market… single family homes. The biggest transfer of wealth has happened 3-4 times in my lifetime and unfortunately, none of that money was transferred to the avg American. That is why we are sharing this knowledge to the first-time investor and small developer. We are teaching what is moving, why it’s moving and what you can do to get and stay ahead of it (positive or negative). This company will be the first of a kind that shares real data on how to obtain that small plot, acre, building, house, or business. We also want to help folks realize the importance of smart relocation. Don’t be afraid to step into an area that has been blocked and guarded by people who are NOT smarter than you are. They were just given a head start and have bigger pockets. So what! Let’s go.
In August, the U.S. economy moved on two tracks. The federal government committed tens of billions to infrastructure and defense, while private capital chased AI buildouts, logistics, and retail. Consumers are still spending, but costs for housing, goods, and services aren’t easing enough. Here’s what we tracked from August until now and what it means near term.
In the near future, I will be putting all my money where my mouth is based on the signals we curate. This isn’t something I will be doing in the background or silently behind the scenes. You will be able to track with our company and see for yourself the moves we are taking. This is how much I believe in the system and logic we added in. Stay tuned for more.
Staying PUT for now.
Top 3 Signals
Idaho National Lab Contract Renewal ($24B)
DOE renewed one of its biggest contracts, securing long-term funding for nuclear and energy research in Idaho. That’s a 10-figure anchor for jobs and regional stability.CoreWeave Data Center in Pennsylvania ($4B)
CoreWeave is building a massive GPU data center outside Philadelphia. This is part of the national shift to spread out AI infrastructure beyond the West Coast.Dollar Tree Q2 Results ($4.6B revenue)
Shoppers are trading down, and Dollar Tree is benefitting. Sales are up 12%, guidance was raised, but management warned Q3 margins could get squeezed. The stock sold off anyway
What’s Driving the Economy
Federal Projects: Over $25B in contracts awarded in the past 30 days. The biggest were Idaho’s national lab ($24B), a $541M aviation system rebuild in Florida, and a $405M DOE support award in Kentucky. VA hospitals saw multiple $5M–$20M upgrades.
Corporate & Debt Markets: Companies raised money through bond offerings — Watco ($250M), Lithia Motors ($500M), and AVAIO ($6B for a Mississippi River data hub).
Permits: Activity in Chicago, Seattle, Norfolk, and Phoenix centered on HVAC retrofits, demolitions, and short-term rental conversions. Not a building boom — more like repositioning older assets.
Jobs: Local postings from GoPuff (PA), Applewood Centers (OH), and Thriveworks (CT) show incremental service-sector hiring. National unemployment sits at ~4.2%.
Macro Numbers That Matter
GDP: Grew 3.3% annualized in Q2, stronger than expected.
Inflation: 2.7% headline, 2.9% core — easing but still above target.
Tariffs: Generated about $187B so far in 2025, now 6–7% of federal revenue. That’s raising costs for households by ~$2,000 a year on average.
Housing: National home prices rose again in Q2 (index up to 703.9). Midwest and Sunbelt metros appreciated fastest. Coastal markets like California and New York showed signs of softening.
The Housing + Migration Picture
People are still leaving expensive coastal metros for more affordable places. Housing appreciation is strongest in the Southeast and Midwest. Depreciation signs are flashing in parts of California and New York. Permits show retrofits, not booms basically landlords fixing HVAC and repurposing buildings for short-term rentals, not rushing into new developments.
Metric | Region / ZIP Code | Key Insight |
|---|---|---|
Top Inbound ZIP Code | Cypress, TX (77433) | ~3,600 inbound moves. Suburban pull with affordability & access. |
Second | New Braunfels, TX (78130) | ~3,486 inbound moves near Austin–San Antonio. |
Top Outbound State | California | Largest net domestic loss, driven by housing and tax costs. |
Regional Trend | Sun Belt Suburbs (TX, FL, AZ) | Suburbs—instead of city cores—leading inbound moves. |
Bottom Line
Over the past month, we tracked $25B+ in federal spending, $10B+ in private corporate raises, and rising costs in everyday housing and goods. Infrastructure and AI are where the money is flowing. Consumers are still buying, but they’re feeling the weight of inflation, housing, and tariffs.
How Can First Time Investors and Developers Win When BIG Real Estate Consolidation is Linked to Housing Prices?
We called Alabama first … but people there DO NOT want to deal with expensive corporate growth.
Office vacancy rates and subsequent consolidation = more expensive cookie cutter apartments.
If you’re looking for a key indicator on what increases home prices… don’t forget this.
Readers,
We will be changing our newsletter cadence from one time per week to twice weekly (Mon+Wed), effective immediately. You may have already noticed this change with our raw data and curated Wednesday “Intel Drop” and now moving from today (Fridays), to Monday mornings will be the second email. Also note, at the beginning of every month, you will receive a newsletter with the Month over Month scope like the one you are reading now.
We thank you for your continued support as we are growing this company that utilizes real data to do big things on a smaller scale. If you love our mission, and want to be a part of our private group, Club Founder, click here to fill out an application.
Thank you for reading,
– Smart Movers Club Team
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Disclaimer: This intel is educational only. Always consult a licensed professional before major financial or development decisions.